Bulat A.F., Bunko T.V., Yashchenko I.A., Kokoulin I.Ye Individual risk: possible standardization of estimation

Details

Parent Category: Geo-Technical Mechanics, 2019

Category: Geo-Technical Mechanics, 2019, Issue 149

Geoteh. meh., 2019, 149, 3-15

https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm2019.149.003

INDIVIDUAL RISK:POSSIBLE STANDARDIZATION OF ESTIMATION

¹Bulat A.F., ¹Bunko T.V., ²Yashchenko I.A., ¹Kokoulin I.Ye., ¹Holovko S.A.

¹Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics named by N. Polyakov of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, ¹Ministry of Power Engineering and Coal Industry of Ukraine

UDC 622.8.1/.8:658.3:005.2

Language: Ukrainian

Annotation.

Coal mines relate to dangerous production objects characterized by the presence of practically all of the existent risks. Therefore, risk, as a concept category, should be identically understood by all specialists as a unified notation, which can be used in all scientific and practical methods for and approaches to safety of the mining works. Individual factor of risks is the basic one, which, in a great deal, is determined by qualification and preparation of a man for acting in a dangerous situation, and by his/her security. Normally, individual risk should be determined not for one person, but for the groups of people who are characterized by approximate the same duration of being in different dangerous areas and who use the same facilities of defense. Principal error of attempts to standardize indexes for technogeneous risk (in all its manifestations, from individual to collective, aerological, ecological, etc.) is that they do not take into account specifics of the danger source and concretization of the estimated event, object under the dangerous impact (recipient) and territory, on which the danger and consequences of the risk spread. For estimating risk, many researchers propose to use a risk matrix «frequency - weight of consequences», but no unified methods are available today. It is explained by the fact that both frequency and weight of consequences of dangers that form the risk greatly depend on specific features of a concrete dangerous production object and typical risks for characteristic this object. Use of difficult mathematical apparatus of probability theory, mathematical statistics and theory of random processes for describing dangers complicates and hampers understanding of process of the risk estimation and, therefore, needs development of the object-oriented engineering methods for calculating components of individual risk. In the article, such method is proposed for calculating distribution of people in time and in space throughout the workings in accordance with the mine vent network for cases when they can be under the harmful action of damaging factors of exogenous fire with the purpose of estimating risk of the people emergency evacuation. Besides, a method for constructing formulas for calculating this index is presented. The proposed approaches make estimation of individual risk of miners.in case of emergency more grounded.

Keywords:

 individual risk, matrix of risks, exogenous fire, damaging factors, risk of emergency evacuation of people

References

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About the authors

Bulat Anatoliy Fedorovich, Academician of the National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Doctor of Technical Sciences (D. Sc), Professor, Director of the Institute, Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics named by N. Poliakov of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IGTM, NAS of Ukraine), Dnepr, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Bunko Tetyana Viktorivna,Doctor of Technical Sciences (D.Sc), Senior Researcher, Senior Researcher in Department of problems of underground mines in great depths, Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics named by N. Poliakov of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IGTM NAS of Ukraine), Dnipro, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. net

Yashchenko Igor Oleksiyovych, Candidate of Technіcal Sciences (Ph.D.), Deputy Chіef of the Department of Labour Protection, Industrial Safety, Physical and Civil Defence, Ministry of Pоwer Engineering and Coal Industry of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine.

Kokoulin Ivan Yevgenovych, Candidate of Technical Sciences (Ph.D.), Senior Researcher, Senior Researcher in Department of problems of underground mines in great depths, Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics named by N. Poliakov of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IGTM NAS of Ukraine), Dnipro, Ukraine

Holovko Sofiia Ashativna, Master of Science, Junior Researcher of Rocks Mechanics Department, Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics named by N. Poliakov NAS of Ukraine (IGTM, NAS of Ukraine), Dnipro, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

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