Kokoulin I.Ye. Improvement of methods of analysis and estimation of emergency risks of coal mines

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Parent Category: Geo-Technical Mechanics, 2023

Category: Geo-Technical Mechanics, 2023, Issue 165

Geoteh. meh. 2023, 165, 117-128

https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm2023.165.117

 

IMPROVEMENT OF METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION OF EMERGENCY RISKS OF COAL MINES

Kokoulin I.Ye.

M.S. Poliakov Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

UDC 622.8.1/.8:[622.012.2:658.588.2]:005.52 

Language: English

Abstract. There are very different interpretations of the term "risk" in the scientific literature. Common to all definitions is that risk involves uncertainty – will an undesirable event occur or not? According to modern concepts, industrial risk is usually interpreted as a probability measure of the occurrence of man-made phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards, and the resulting social, economic, ecological and other types of damage. Thus, in a simplified view, risk is a combination of the probability of harm and the severity of this harm. Emergency  risk is the probability of such damage caused by occurred accident.
The definition of the theory of emergency risks and their classification are provided. The ratio of risk objects and undesirable events allows us to distinguish five main types of risks: individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks. The emergency risk of mining enterprise includes all these components. Using the considered types of risk allows us to search for optimal solutions for ensuring safety both at the level of the coal mine and at the macro level. A functional model of emergency risk development is presented. The process of hazard identification and risk assessment is analyzed. Emphasis is placed on risk analysis as a basis for the preparation of risk management measures, and requirements for risk analysis are formulated. The main methods of risk analysis are briefly described. The method of assessing the degree of risk is presented, and the final degree of danger is determined. Recommendations are made for the selection of risk analysis methods at various stages of the operation of hazardous production facilities, namely, for pre-design work, design, commissioning, operation, reconstruction.
It is noted that in order to properly assess any type of risk, it is necessary to move from risk standard definition to risk assessment by indirect factors.
All methods of analysis and assessment of emergency risks of coal mines can be used in individually or complementing each other, and qualitative analysis methods can include quantitative risk criteria (mainly based on expert assessments). A full quantitative risk analysis should use the results of a qualitative hazard analysis
Keywords: mine accidents, emergency situations, impressive factor, emergency risk, methods of risk analysis and assessment.

 

REFERENCES

1. Bulat, A.F., Bunko, T.V., Yashchenko, I.O. and Kokoulin, I. Ye. (2018), “Standardization of concepts and terms of emergency and emergency risks of coal mines”, Geo-Technical Mechanics, no. 141, pp. 47–56. https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm2018.141.050

2. Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine (2014), Okhorona pratsi. Terminy i vyznachennya ponyatʹ. Pryynyato i nadano chynnosti nakazom Minekonomrozvytku Ukrayiny vid 02.12.2014 № 1429 [Occupational Health. Terms and definitions of concepts. Adopted and put into effect by the order of the Ministry of Economic Development of Ukraine dated 02.12.2014 No. 1429], Kyiv, UA.

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5. Bulat, A.F., Bunko, T.V., Kokoulin, I.Ye., Yashchenko, I.O. and Golovko, S.A. (2019), “Individual risk: unification of assessment is possible”, Geo-Technical Mechanics, no. 149, pp. 3–15. https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm 2019.149.03

6. Bulat, A.F., Bunko, T.V., Kokoulin, I.Ye., Yashchenko, I.O, Myroshnychenko, V.V. and Golovko, S.A. (2020), “Study of the factors that form the aerological risk of coal mines”, Geo-Technical Mechanics, no. 150, pp. 3–14. https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm2020.150.003

7. Bulat, A.F., Bunko, T.V., Kokoulin, I.Ye. and Yashchenko, I.O. (2020), “Modeling of dynamic phenomena in the ventilation network caused by the flow of a sudden release”, Geo-Technical Mechanics, no. 152, pp. 22–31. https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm2020.152.022

8. Kokoulin, I.Ye., Yashchenko, I.O. and Myroshnychenko, V.V. (2021), “Using the BOW-TIE method during the analysis of aerological risks of coal mines”, Geo-Technical Mechanics, no. 156, pp. 165–174. https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm2021.156.165

 

About the author:

Kokoulin Ivan Yevhenovych, Candidate of Technical Sciences (Ph.D.), Senior Researcher, Senior Researcher in Department of Problems of Underground Mininig at Great Depths, M.S. Poliakov Institute of Geotechnical Mechanics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IGTM of the NAS of Ukraine), Dnipro, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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